Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.181028 2.301299 2.430986 2.582435 2.756078 2.951045 3.189661
2025-06-22 1.997055 2.142351 2.305103 2.503767 2.743972 3.031180 3.411170
2025-06-29 1.906183 2.070646 2.260361 2.500324 2.803764 3.187592 3.735126
2025-07-06 1.810454 1.982612 2.185055 2.447334 2.789560 3.240708 3.923412
2025-07-13 1.773482 1.959978 2.184167 2.482935 2.887942 3.450699 4.373618
2025-07-20 1.756658 1.959231 2.208242 2.549998 3.032839 3.745337 5.037025
2025-07-27 1.715721 1.925304 2.186847 2.553190 3.086325 3.909487 5.529839
2025-08-03 1.679748 1.895235 2.167814 2.556814 3.138935 4.078629 6.097823
2025-08-10 1.620711 1.832867 2.102796 2.491146 3.079502 4.048715 6.221707
2025-08-17 1.584786 1.798769 2.073521 2.473938 3.092787 4.147074 6.693341
2025-08-24 1.552961 1.768609 2.047874 2.459859 3.108923 4.252226 7.241907
2025-08-31 1.525239 1.742686 2.026612 2.450493 3.131175 4.372004 7.916577
2025-09-07 1.507720 1.730618 2.025106 2.472401 3.211269 4.631245 9.356681
2025-09-14 1.459897 1.676571 1.963207 2.399409 3.122252 4.519959 9.261578
2025-09-21 1.437652 1.656091 1.947351 2.395825 3.153820 4.677389 10.567693
2025-09-28 1.402372 1.617011 1.903918 2.347344 3.101591 4.637138 10.859845
2025-10-05 1.394546 1.614738 1.912282 2.379777 3.197916 4.964992 14.172505
2025-10-12 1.395593 1.624411 1.937858 2.440811 3.354662 5.499935 24.237309
2025-10-19 1.379661 1.610121 1.928021 2.443706 3.399582 5.751700 39.437419
2025-10-26 1.364683 1.596677 1.918840 2.446997 3.445507 6.025146 132.155593
2025-11-02 1.333000 1.559213 1.873136 2.387236 3.357218 5.850512 101.872374
2025-11-09 1.314666 1.540054 1.854067 2.371548 3.359554 5.977062 NaN
2025-11-16 1.297908 1.522712 1.837166 2.358704 3.366722 6.124426 NaN